Probability of Success

I am not an environmentalist, but an economic theorist concerned with our world and our future. As such you may dislike my belief not only in nuclear power but also in nuclear space propulsion systems. I should say the nature of atomic secrets means that there is a great distortion in your likely understanding of their place in our future.

Never forget that we jumped immediately into a cold war after harnessing the atom and as such distorted many truths greatly in the process. As such the Einstein theory of relativity not only went unchallenged but with the passage of time become an unassailable truth.

Consider for a moment that the "relative" effect is on "A" and not "M" in the Newtonian baseline equation F=MA. Natural "A", the gravity of our planet 9.8 metres per second squared, is not identical in all circumstances to the artificial acceleration of 9.8 metres per second squared in a jet aircraft. We assume so, but no laboratory on earth can "switch off" gravity to run tests. The implication is that not only can a starship travel many times faster than light but that the necessary acceleration experienced by the crew of 100G (gravities) can quite probably seem only 1G when outside of natural gravity fields (i.e. imperfectly but closely obtainable when travelling the large distances between suns and solar systems).

Probability of Success continued

One day the trips to our nearest suns will take no longer than the previous journey to New York in Concorde. However I presently estimate on our current global development path that there is a 55% chance the world will not pull out of economic recession, wars will escalate and environmental pressures (both real and political) will trigger a global thermonuclear war and throw us back at least 200 years in development time. My economic theories do provide the restructuralisation of the global internet economy to pull-back from the investment incentives that currently and will escalate further the global war economy, although without considerable general and technical education I doubt many will understand them. As I can see no other theorists publicly advocating the reforms I write on, the 45% survival chance thus depends on other theorists with capacity to publish the same reform proposals.

Clearly the 55% probability I foresee it not a "hope", as I too would perish, just a cold and realistic appraisal from my own analysis. Also in my own view, only by the long term reaching of the stars and in quick journey times is there a way forward from the atomic era, in my opinion. I cannot see despite constant searching how any other historical paths will work and hence obviously live with a certain dread of inevitability. Inevitable only because of factors such as our luck to have continental plate arrangements as are before 1492, the cold war legacy and in America's need to portray Einstein in their "mankind’s saviour" image as against "wow - top weapons scientist".