Bird's Nest Theory

What to expect if interstellar flight is not achieved by the solar system's planet earth? In considering life on other planets, it is helpful to consider our possible reactions should the first alien contact be made from the outside e.g. ex-solar. First let us assume that in concordance with the big bang theory, galaxies are ready to hatch into interstellar flight societies at roughly the same time (1,000-10,000 years). This helps explain why no contact has yet been made, since the majority of other planetary civilisations are also on the cusp of acquiring the technology to make interstellar flight possible. Our planet only developed the chain reaction that formulates the nuclear bomb in 1940s. It is the simple observation of this reaction that releases so much energy that is likely the key to interstellar flight.

The delay in the logical application of the invention to space flight in part is due to the obstacles surrounding reliable launch of payloads into orbit (Payload performance maturity). Thus while the seed of our possible planetary destruction is also the potential seed for humankind's future voyage into the stars, it is the rocket technologies that must mature so that multiple testing can occur without accidental spillage of hazardous materials being common. Of course, the logic to delaying manned testing in space becomes less convincing once the rate of progress in rocket science become lower as a result of the peace dividend. At such a point not only does a window of opportunity open up because there is no stand-off between superpowers, but payload performance maturity is near optimal and this enables the necessary multiple testing to be carried out with acceptable or the minimal risks of launch failures. However since this constructive application is experimental and associated with feared materials of mass destruction, testing may be delayed for considerable periods of time even though the margins of the science's limiting control factors have reached a minimal point.

Interstellar flight thus depends upon not only science, but also social theories that make the passage to successful development possible. The materials that make interstellar flight possible are also like to endanger the survival of interplanetary civilisation. Any "solar religion" in dictating the natural speed of light to be a limiting factor, is of course an almost impassable obstacle to interstellar flight. Suns are normally of such a distance apart as to make flight between them at speeds less than light to be very unattractive to the principles of economic decision making. Hence no decent economic models supporting interstellar investment are likely to emerge while the solar religion grips physics and is assumed reasonable by economists. It is alarming to speculate that the random shape of earth's landmasses could be an influencing factor in the widespread error of accepting any theory not to think in speeds greater than light. Geographical arrangement of the earth's continents did mean that the myth of the earth being flat had to be conquered. Can such an early error, which would not have been possible should the world have been easily circumnavigated by land mass arrangement, actually lead us into repeating the same mistake when faced with interstellar exploration? To be fatalistic, man may be doomed to wait discovery by alien civilisations or destroy himself in the meantime, simply because the shape of our continents ensured the myth of the flat earth was significant? Thus a random product of our continental design tragically lures us to repeat a gross error 5 centuries later. It is almost inevitable because a potential discovery of a similar historical magnitude, demands a similar overbearing and all encompassing logic of denial. This flattery of repetition is so powerful when allied with man's natural tendency for solar superstition that it is one scientific theory accepted almost universally.

Certainly man could seek to turn the theory of relativity into a law by pursuing concrete proof in attempting the speeds close to light. Likewise by ignoring it and returning to the classical law of physics set by Newton and accepted for 4 centuries (F=MA), interstellar flight would materialise out of the results of such exploration. The danger is that it will always seem a dream awaiting an invention, even though the invention has been invented and the application demands a test. As the invention behind interstellar flight is already with us, the good news is that the invention of the necessary testing apparatus in space can done easily if the important observation is made that such a force cannot or should not be tethered but returned under separate power. Yet, such is the power of the solar religion and our need to repeat the "mistake" of the Columbus era! That is reinforced by the arrogance that modern man is himself incapable of making the same mistake twice. Hence the common and automatic sneer towards such an elemental belief the world was flat! Thus reinforced is a complex that prevents any faster than light theory because why would we be stupid enough to make the elemental mistake to think the world flat twice? Yet it is an elemental mistake popularly adopted not because of any understanding of the complex laws of diminishing returns within the relativity theory, but because the natural elemental light seems a wise thing to hold an elemental theory about. Hence there is an accusation that the resistance to interstellar flight is not serious physics but a modern form of a solar religion such as the worship of sun by the Aztecs.

If we are never to develop interstellar flight ourselves, how long must we hold out before help arrives? When the theory of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) replaced Malthus (the theory that the human population expands until limited resources and the environmental costs of processing cause self-destruction), Malthusian principles returned when MAD was abandoned with the end of Communism. This cycle is born to repeat itself, until either fear comes true or the limitations of the planet are escaped with space flight. The post-MAD return to Malthus could be termed Super-Malthus. Therefore the new American moves at the start of the new century to reject environmental agreements and push ahead with "Star Wars" are another turn of the cycle into a new MAD or SuperMad theory. Could the cycle be quickening? Even the most optimistic historian would remain cautious to predict that man can avoid the massive and serious conflict both internally and between nations! Thus without the will to turn the seeds of our destruction into a seed for humankind's future voyage into the stars, the awful truth is that the MAD and Malthusian fears cycle continuously until our historical fate seals itself. And this is because a solar religion adopted by physicists as law will successfully prevent 99.99% of economists looking at any model of successful interstellar trade. The remote possibility remains that before the sun sets, an alien first contact arrives.

From the familiar observation of nature that egg and other reproduction procedures hatch or reach maturity at approximately the same time to give competing offspring a more equal chance of survival, galaxy wide civilisations may also mature. With this level playing field approach, successful survival does not depend on the first to emerge being automatically victorious but because the chick is closely followed by others. Thus survival depends upon inherited genetic skills proving themselves and it means establishing dominance through natural selection. This is the familiar Darwinian theory of evolution.

Bird's Nest Theory continued

Therefore each solar system develops independently like an egg in incubation until the appliance of science enables that solar system to reach other solar systems (e.g. hatching). Solar systems that do not evolve quickly enough or have regressed through some catastrophe will thus eventually be the objects of discovery of someone else. The question arises if we on earth were discovered would we be given the secret of scientific application through the alien contact or would we suffer exploitation and injustice? From our knowledge of history and physics we can reach several conclusions. Firstly, the distance between galaxies is much greater than the distance between solar systems. This is likely to mean that the intergalactic flight between galaxies may require a secondary scientific discovery! This is further to the application of the initial science to successful interstellar flight. Since nuclear physics has already discovered two forms of chain reaction, fission and fusion, it is a tentative but reasonable conclusion that while interstellar flight depends on the successful containment of the smaller fission reaction, the more challenging containment of the much larger fusion reaction is required for intergalactic flight.

Until planet earth receives an alien contact, it is a natural assumption that we are the most advanced in our galaxy. Since it has only just been 500 years since the discovery of the Americas, if the variance between hatching times is put between 1,000 to 10,000 years, then if earth were to develop into an interstellar flight society, our first contacts may be with civilisations pre-Columbus. Any speculation is of course plausible, but it is best to avoid the assumption (that would be common to those without much historical perspective) that our likely first contact would be with a civilisation with planes and automobiles. In planning for interstellar flight, the Columbus model is the best bet for our first contact. Until we know otherwise, all lessons that were learnt from this discovery in 1492 should be applied with only intelligent modifications to the business of forward planning of our future discoveries. (However try resisting any flattery of that era's opposition to Columbus's model: the earth is flat to our modern thinking!) Unfortunately, as previously discussed, the division of land mass in making Columbus' voyage so epic, may also have provoked the willingness of mankind to accept the theory of relativity. There seems little side issue here: such a theory is directly opposed to the economic logic of any interstellar travel (e.g. a return voyage has a fanciful length of 15 years). Yet not only has mankind a capability to ensure total global nuclear destruction, but a long history of unleashing maximum levels of destruction when at war. Hence the willingness of mankind to discard the pursuit of the economics of interstellar flight for the sake of one theory has happened because firstly it appeals to primitive solar or "the sun god" superstitions and religious beliefs. Secondly it is supported by a deep psychiatric complex that if the flat earth theorists before Columbus were stupid, only the stupid now believe in faster than light theories.

However other much more advanced civilisations may exist in other galaxies. Another galaxy from ours is a different nest of eggs and thus timed to mature or hatch differently! We should assume that these might be on the brink of the secondary scientific breakthrough that will allow them to quickly swarm through other galaxies. The question is thus which is likely to come first: intergalactic travel for another civilisation in another galaxy or interstellar travel for another civilisation in our own galaxy? If first alien contact was made by a solar system within our own galaxy that had only just begun to trade across space, optimism would be great and cynicism towards sharing technological advances not established. Just as if earth were to develop interstellar flight and discover ex-solar civilisations, we would at first be likely to share technology with each new contact. However after a certain length of time the consequences of such generosity would be learnt through inevitable conflicts over trade spheres and in the subsequent contacts would be denied automatic access to our technologies. It is thus to be hoped that if we cannot initiate first contact with aliens because of our technological inability, that any civilisation discovering us is at the start of its adventure and willing to share technologies.

However should first contact arrive from outside our own galaxy, there is the danger that such an advanced civilisation being accustomed to exploiting many solar systems in their home galaxy, would be unwilling to share advances in their technology. Such a contact would impose the most stringent conditions upon us and only appear enlightened because experience would have taught them diplomatic skills appropriate to the situations. Trade however would be likely very exploitative and not to our favour, not compared to any contact coming first from within our own galaxy. The greatest hope might be that the savage elements behind conquest might have had time to be soothed by well intentioned standard practice procedures that is the consequence of bureaucratic functions engendered by an established empire.

Unless manned atomic testing in space are taking place, mankind is no nearer interstellar flight. With the time clocks of MAD and Malthus alternating on ever shortening cycles, faith in the future must regretfully gamble for survival on some real aliens visiting us and making first solar contact. The price of gold might be the best indicator of the type and form of alien making contact with us. First contact with an interstellar civilisation not much more advanced than us, may not mean that they have the technology to overcome the costs of launching materials into orbit. Gold being heavy would be unprofitable for them to collect and depending on the alien's politics; the gold price would change sharply. If they were friendly because they were an emerging interstellar power, the price of gold would fall, as it would be useless to hold for trade with them. If they were hostile because they have entered a mature and cynical period of empire building, the price of gold would rise as people invest in a property they could not be robbed of. However the price of Gold would certainly rise if the aliens were intergalactic as they would possess the technological ability to launch heavy payloads into space efficiently and demand for it would outstrip supply. Alien policies or diplomatic procedures might of course invalidate such expectations, but a rapid fall in gold prices following first contact might well be good news. It would be evidence of a civilisation not much more technically advanced than ours, which in spite of having developed interstellar flight does not yet have the technology to extract heavy materials out of our gravitational pull without considerable expense. In this case, the alien's profitable trade with us for their home world is likely to be in lightweight gems and not weighty gold. It is for this very reason that all opposition aside, the return on capital investment on any interstellar flight project would hinge on making first contact with another planet whose aliens were advanced enough to have incorporated gems into ceremonial possessions but not advanced enough to resist their loss.